The workshop
The reader's site is the seven pages in the row above: the forecast, how it is doing, what to watch, the farm and the station. Everything here is the work behind it: replays of single forecasts and periods, the full record, the models and the physics, and the lab where every change is tested before it reaches the site. It is all live and all honest; it is just more than a reader needs.
Replays
- How it was madeOne forecast replayed from its record: the models arriving, the statistical forecast forming, the physics stepping through the night, the 51 runs fanning out, the published number landing.
- How it wentThe last completed period replayed: the forecast as issued, the station drawing over it hour by hour with the events, and the verdict.
The record
- Day by dayOne row per day, the station's high and low beside every source at three cut-offs, a goal that colours the hits and counts them, and the misses signed.
- Against the stationEvery weather model, the National Weather Service and ours, hour by hour for the last two days and today, with the station drawn over them.
- MissesThe biggest misses outside the range, case studies, and highs and lows by kind of day.
The models
- The modelsWhich model made the forecast on the site, the candidate on trial beside it, every treatment, the calibration and the grading rules.
- PhysicsOur physics model of the station: the night and day runs, the ensemble fan, and the model's tests.
- Inside the physicsThe equations, the constants, tonight's run re-run in the browser with the knobs, and any past night with the station overlaid.
- Run chartsThe temperature and energy-budget charts of every run of the last three days.
- How it worksThe whole method in plain words, the status of every feature, the glossary and the limits.
The lab
- NotebookThe notebook: every change tested in the open, pass or fail, and the research entries.
- Engine roomThe station computer's own status: every fetch, build and push, what is late and what is down.