Somerset Weather · Hyper-local Forecast

The next 24 hours

Shaded rows are night. The temperature is our forecast. The weather words and the wind come from the four weather models' average. The chance of rain is the share of about 120 slightly different runs of the weather models that show rain in that hour; it runs higher than what usually reaches the rain gauge, so for planning, use the rain chances on the Today and 7 days pages, which are matched to the gauge.

The next 48 hours on one chart

The blue line is our temperature forecast. The shaded band around it is how far it could reasonably go: about 120 slightly different runs of the weather models, with the warmest and coldest tenth left out, moved to sit around our forecast. The dotted gray line is the dew point, the temperature at which dew forms. The dashed green line is our estimate of the grass temperature, shown at night only. Gray bands are night, and the thin line marks freezing, 32°. The thin dashed orange line is a second curve on trial beside ours (lab entry L-045): our curve with the station's own typical miss for the time since sunrise or sunset taken out, for the kind of night or day the models expect. Its high and low are the same as ours; only the path between them differs. Both are graded against the station every hour until April 30, 2027.

The next six hours, updated with what's happening now

The station is reading 2.2° warmer than this forecast expected for now. The airports the wind is coming from are reading 0.6° warmer than the models expected, and that air is heading this way. Both differences tend to last a few hours, so the next six hours are corrected for them, less each hour.

Updated forecast = model forecast + delta from the station + delta from upwind (to the nearest tenth).

Model forecast: the four weather models' hour-by-hour temperature, adjusted by our correction for this station's highs and lows. Delta from the station: the station is reading a different temperature than the forecast expected right now, and that difference usually hangs on for a few hours. This column is the part of it carried into each hour, smaller each hour as it fades. Delta from upwind: the same thing for the airports the wind is blowing from, since their air arrives here over the next few hours. How much of each difference to carry forward, and how fast to fade it, was worked out from thousands of past hours.

Every column, hour by hour, for 48 hours

Times are local. Shaded rows are night. Wind and gusts are in miles per hour, at the weather models' standard height of 33 feet (the station's sensor is lower and more sheltered, so it usually reads less). Pressure is in inches of mercury, adjusted to sea level. The rain chance is the share of about 120 slightly different runs of the weather models with rain in that hour, and the amount is the models' average. On a phone, scroll sideways; the time column stays put.

How to read it