Every forecast against the station the last two days and today
Each day is drawn from the forecasts as they stood at midnight, before that day began: its high (8 AM to 8 PM) and the night after it (to 9 AM). The station's readings are drawn as they come in, so today's lines show how each forecast is doing right now. Shaded bands are the nights. Tap or hover the chart to read every forecast at that hour.
We forecast a high and a low, so our line is drawn as the four-model average moved by our correction at the hour the models put each low and high, blended in between. For the models, the hourly values are what each one forecast for that hour. The violet physics lines are experimental and start from the station's own reading at sunrise and sunset (tonight's, before sunset, from our forecast for sunset), so they know more than the midnight forecasts. Station readings are averaged over 10 minutes.
Hour by hour: how far off
| Forecast | Today, typical miss | Today, running | Two days before, typical miss | Two days before, running |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ours | 2.1°6 h | about right | 1.7°48 h | 1.1° warm |
| National Weather Service | 3.8°6 h | 1.3° warm | 1.8°48 h | 0.6° cold |
| GFS (American) | 1.5°6 h | 0.9° cold | 1.4°48 h | 0.3° warm |
| ECMWF (European) | 5.4°6 h | 4.1° warm | 2.8°48 h | 1.2° warm |
| ICON (German) | 3.2°6 h | 0.6° warm | 2.1°48 h | 1.0° warm |
| GEM (Canadian) | 2.7°6 h | 1.1° warm | 2.4°48 h | 0.9° cold |
| NBM (the National Weather Service blend) | 3.5°6 h | 1.2° warm | 1.9°48 h | 0.6° cold |
| HRRR (American, short range) | 1.5°6 h | 0.9° cold | 1.4°48 h | 0.3° warm |
| WxSim | 1.9°6 h | 1.9° cold | 2.5°48 h | 1.7° cold |
| Experimental, starting from the station's own reading at sunrise or sunset (not a fair race with the forecasts above) | ||||
| Physics alone (uncorrected) | 2.1°6 h | 1.7° cold | 2.0°47 h | 1.7° warm |
The typical miss is the average distance between each hourly forecast and the station at that hour, for the hours so far ("Today" starts at 8 AM). "Running" is whether it has been too warm or too cold on average. Lowest miss in bold. A few hours prove very little: the scoreboard grades every day.
Highs and lows
| Period | Station | Ours | NWS | GFS | ECMWF | ICON | GEM | NBM | HRRR | WxSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday's high | 61.2° | 61.1°−0.1 | 59.0°−2.2 | 61.1°−0.1 | 58.1°−3.1 | 58.7°−2.5 | 57.9°−3.3 | 57.4°−3.8 | 61.1°−0.1 | 63.2°+2.0 |
| Monday night's low | 40.5° | 41.3°+0.8 | 40.0°−0.5 | 41.3°+0.8 | 45.7°+5.2 | 43.7°+3.2 | 40.8°+0.3 | 41.8°+1.3 | 41.3°+0.8 | 36.7°−3.8 |
| Yesterday's high | 66.0° | 66.2°+0.2 | 63.0°−3.0 | 64.7°−1.3 | 62.5°−3.5 | 64.3°−1.7 | 61.3°−4.7 | 62.8°−3.2 | 64.7°−1.3 | 63.6°−2.4 |
| Last night's low | 34.2° | 35.3°+1.1 | 37.0°+2.8 | 33.7°−0.5 | 39.5°+5.3 | 37.9°+3.7 | 36.3°+2.1 | 37.3°+3.1 | 33.7°−0.5 | 34.3°+0.1 |
| Today's high | 61.7°so far | 62.3° now 65.3° |
62.0° | 62.3° | 61.9° | 61.4° | 62.3° | 62.1° | 62.3° | 63.1° |
| Tonight's low | ahead | 40.8° | 40.0° | 42.7° | 41.4° | 42.5° | 39.2° | 39.6° | 42.7° | 43.7° |
As they stood at midnight before each day. Ours, the National Weather Service and WxSim are their issued highs and lows; for the models, the warmest or coolest hour in their hourly forecast (an hourly forecast can miss a short peak). The small number is forecast minus the station; closest in bold once the period is over. "Now" is our high or low adjusted live for how the day is running Proven. The official grading uses the forecast out just before each period began, so it can differ: the scoreboard.
The physics alone, period by period
| Period | Station | Ours (midnight) | Physics alone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday's high | 61.2° | 61.1°−0.1 | 61.9°+0.7 day model |
| Monday night's low | 40.5° | 41.3°+0.8 | 42.5°+2.0 night model |
| Yesterday's high | 66.0° | 66.2°+0.2 | 66.9°+0.9 day model |
| Last night's low | 34.2° | 35.3°+1.1 | 34.8°+0.6 night model |
| Today's high | 61.7°so far | 62.3° | 62.1° day model |
| Tonight's low preview, before sunset |
ahead | 40.8° | 44.4° night model |
Physics alone: our heat-budget model of the mast, started from the station's reading at sunrise (the day model) or at sunset (the night model), before any correction. The corrected physics forecast, the candidate to become our forecast, is graded on the How we're doing and shown with every model on The models. Physics runs run sunset to sunrise and sunrise to sunset, a little different from the 8 AM / 8 PM periods graded here.